AFL draws


Australian Rules Football (AFL) is a football code in which there are "goals" and "behinds".
A goal scores 6 points and a behind scores 1 point. An example score is "13 10 88",
which means 13 goals, 10 behinds = 88 points. Because a large range of total
scores in a game are possible, draws are quite rare.
football

The current AFL national competition involving 16 teams had its origins in 1897 in the state of Victoria, in the Victoria Football League (VFL). The records of the VFL and AFL are often considered together, representing the elite Australian rules football competitions over that time period.

There have been 109 seasons between 1897 and 2005 (inclusive).

The distribution of the number of draws per season is as follows:
Number of draws Count
0 28
1 47
2 21
3 8
4 4
5 1




The rarity of draws suggests that a Poisson distribution could be fitted to these data. The average number of draws is 1.229. Using a Poisson distribution with this mean gives predicted frequencies shown in the graph, with the observed frequencies.


alfdraws

The predicted frequencies are similar to the observed frequencies. The data fit a Poisson model quite well.

The full data set is below.


 

The year 1977 was particularly unusual: the Grand Final was a draw, and hence was replayed the following week, and in round 7 of that year there were two draws. In one of them the points
scored by both teams were 98, and in the other, 99.
Grand Final draws between 1897-2005:
Row Year Draws Row Year Draws
1 1897 1 56 1952 3
2 1898 1 57 1953 1
3 1899 0 58 1954 2
4 1900 0 59 1955 0
5 1901 1 60 1956 2
6 1902 0 61 1957 2
7 1903 1 62 1958 0
8 1904 1 63 1959 1
9 1905 1 64 1960 2
10 1906 0 65 1961 3
11 1907 0 66 1962 1
12 1908 0 67 1963 1
13 1909 3 68 1964 2
14 1910 1 69 1965 0
15 1911 3 70 1966 1
16 1912 0 71 1967 2
17 1913 1 72 1968 2
18 1914 4 73 1969 1
19 1915 1 74 1970 0
20 1916 1 75 1971 2
21 1917 2 76 1972 2
22 1918 0 77 1973 1
23 1919 1 78 1974 2
24 1920 0 79 1975 0
25 1921 5 80 1976 1
26 1922 2 81 1977 4
27 1923 1 82 1978 1
28 1924 1 83 1979 1
29 1925 1 84 1980 3
30 1926 1 85 1981 0
31 1927 1 86 1982 1
32 1928 1 87 1983 0
33 1929 2 88 1984 0
34 1930 0 89 1985 1
35 1931 0 90 1986 0
36 1932 1 91 1987 2
37 1933 1 92 1988 1
38 1934 1 93 1989 1
39 1935 4 94 1990 1
40 1936 0 95 1991 2
41 1937 1 96 1992 2
42 1938 0 97 1993 1
43 1939 1 98 1994 1
44 1940 0 99 1995 3
45 1941 0 100 1996 3
46 1942 0 101 1997 1
47 1943 1 102 1998 1
48 1944 4 103 1999 1
49 1945 1 104 2000 2
50 1946 1 105 2001 0
51 1947 2 106 2002 2
52 1948 2 107 2003 3
53 1949 0 108 2004 0
54 1950 1 109 2005 1
55 1951 2