Fire-fighters cause damage?!
Statistics of the amount of damage caused in house fires show that the
larger the number of fire-fighters attending the scene, the worse the
damage! What do you think the reason is?
This is an example of what is called Simpson's Paradox. The
apparent association is due to the omission of some important
information. In the example of house fires, the size of the fire needs
to be taken into account—more fire-fighters are sent to larger
fires and the larger the fires, the worse the damage.
In many situations, the explanation for
some apparent association cannot be identified easily. One
example is the association between smoking and lung cancer. It has
been argued that the apparent association between the two may be due to
some genetic factor that predisposes people both to nicotine addiction
and lung cancer. If this is true, then smoking cannot be blamed for
causing cancer. It was only after considerable research, with the aid
of statistical methods, that it is now generally accepted that smoking
is a contributory cause of lung cancer.
|